Most metals fell, with SHFE tin and nickel down over 1%, while silicon metal and polysilicon rose over 2%. European container shipping surged over 15% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM July 15 News:

Metals Market:

As of the day session close, domestic market base metals collectively fell, with only SHFE tin and SHFE nickel dropping over 1% - SHFE tin down 1.12% and SHFE nickel down 1.15%. SHFE lead declined 0.76%, while other metals saw marginal fluctuations. Alumina main contract rose 1.22%, and aluminum casting main contract closed flat at 19,790 yuan/mt.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract gained 0.21%, while silicon metal and polysilicon both surged over 2% - silicon metal up 2.81% and polysilicon up 2.78%. Europe Containerized Freight main contract soared 15.38% to settle at 1,655.6.

Ferrous metals series mostly fell, with only iron ore and stainless steel rising - iron ore up 0.13% and stainless steel up 0.08%. Rebar fell 0.54%, and HRC declined 0.31%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal dropped 0.38% and coke fell 0.85%.

Overseas Market: As of 15:04, only LME copper and LME aluminum rose in the overseas market - LME copper up 0.23% and LME aluminum up 0.02%. LME lead and LME zinc both fell over 0.6% - LME lead down 0.65% and LME zinc down 0.64%, while other metals saw marginal fluctuations.

Precious Metals: As of 15:04, COMEX gold rose 0.29% while COMEX silver fell 0.39%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 0.25% and SHFE silver rose 0.52%, marking four consecutive trading days of gains.

Market Snapshot as of 15:04 Today

》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

[National Bureau of Statistics: H1 GDP up 5.3% YoY as national economy overcame challenges with steady progress] The National Bureau of Statistics released H1 economic data. Preliminary estimates show H1 GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan at constant prices, up 5.3% YoY. By sector, primary industry added value reached 3,117.2 billion yuan (+3.7% YoY), secondary industry 23,905 billion yuan (+5.3% YoY), and tertiary industry 39,031.4 billion yuan (+5.5% YoY). Quarterly breakdown: Q1 GDP grew 5.4% YoY and Q2 grew 5.2% YoY. On a QoQ basis, Q2 GDP expanded 1.1%. H1 nationwide industrial output above designated size rose 6.4% YoY. By sector category, mining output grew 6.0% YoY, manufacturing 7.0% YoY, and electricity/heat/gas/water production and supply 1.9% YoY. Equipment manufacturing output surged 10.2% YoY, while high-tech manufacturing output grew 9.5% YoY - outpacing overall industrial growth by 3.8 and 3.1 percentage points respectively. By economic type, the value-added of state-owned holding enterprises rose 4.2% YoY; joint-stock enterprises increased 6.9%, foreign-funded and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan-invested enterprises grew 4.3%, and private enterprises expanded 6.7%. By product category, production of 3D printing equipment, NEVs, and industrial robots surged 43.1%, 36.2%, and 35.6% YoY respectively. In June, industrial value-added above designated size climbed 6.8% YoY and 0.50% MoM. 》Click for details

[NBS: Consumption policies will intensify in H2 to advance real estate stabilization]NBS Deputy Head Sheng Laiyun stated at a State Council press conference that China has implemented a series of policies this year to boost domestic demand, support production, and improve circulation. NBS tracking data shows improvements in passenger flows, logistics, and capital flows. Since the beginning of the year, local governments and departments have followed central decisions to stabilize the real estate market with city-specific measures, yielding noticeable results. The real estate sector is generally moving toward halting declines and stabilizing, evidenced by narrowing sales declines in commercial housing; fluctuating but narrowing price declines across first-, second-, and third-tier cities; improved funding sources for the real estate market with orderly debt resolution by developers; and four consecutive months of inventory reductions. Sheng emphasized that while sales area and prices remain down YoY, the sector's bottoming-out and transformation is a normal process requiring greater efforts to stabilize the market. In H1, China's consumer market became more vibrant under consumption-promotion policies, showing positive momentum. H2 consumption growth will be supported by sustained positive factors from H1, with policies continuing to intensify. China's economic stability in H2 is underpinned by three factors: firstly, H1's steady progress laying a solid foundation for annual targets; secondly, long-term high-quality development trends building consensus, new growth momentum, economic rebalancing, and sustainable capacity improvements; and thirdly, coordinated macro policies safeguarding stable operations. Overall, China's economy will maintain steady progress and positive momentum in H2.》Click for details

►The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1498 yuan per US dollar on July 15

US dollar update:

As of 15:04, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 98.05, with markets awaiting trade negotiation progress and US economic data for further guidance. The US Fed's independence is also under scrutiny ahead of tonight's CPI data release. Economists surveyed expect the overall CPI to rise YoY from 2.4% last month to 2.7%. Core CPI is expected to rise from 2.8% to 3.0%. US President Trump once again criticized Fed Chairman Powell on Monday, stating that interest rates should be 1% or lower. US federal funds rate futures traders expect a 50 basis point interest rate cut before the end of the year, with the first cut expected in September. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro:

Today, data such as the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone and Germany in July, total reserve assets of the Eurozone in June, the US CPI annual rate (unadjusted) and core CPI annual rate (unadjusted) in June, the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in July, the Canadian CPI annual rate (unadjusted) and core CPI - common annual rate in June, the Canadian manufacturing sales monthly rate and new orders monthly rate in May will be released. In addition, attention should be paid to the State Council Information Office's press conference on the national economic operation; a speech by 2025 FOMC voting member and Boston Fed President Collins; a welcome address by Fed Governor Bowman at a conference hosted by the Fed; and speeches by Bank of England Governor Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves at a dinner at the Mansion House in London.

Crude Oil:

As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets fell together, with US oil down 0.6% and Brent oil down 0.48%, due to lingering concerns over US trade tariffs. Analyst Priyanka Sachdeva from Phillip Nova said, "The US government remains relatively mild in its restrictions on Russian crude oil, which has alleviated supply concerns in the oil market to some extent, but the US tariff threat continues to put pressure on economic growth." Analysts from ING said on Tuesday, "If the US imposes new restrictions on Russian oil supplies, this will significantly change the supply and demand outlook in the oil market." Tariffs may slow economic growth, which could weaken global fuel demand and drag down oil prices.

In addition, according to RIA, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais said that OPEC expects oil demand to be "very strong" in the third quarter, and the supply-demand balance will tighten in the following months. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025 on Monday, citing risks of supply disruptions, declining oil inventories in OECD countries, and production restrictions in Russia. Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said on Tuesday that the country is striving to fulfill its commitments under the OPEC+ agreement. Olzhas Bektenov said that the country will not consider withdrawing from the OPEC+ agreement. (Webstock Inc.)

SMM Daily Review

►July 15: Aluminum billet processing fee center shifted upward as downstream firm demand boosted slightly improved transactions [Aluminum Billet Spot Daily Review]

►Market transaction prices pulled back further; short-term high-grade NPI prices under downward pressure [NPI Daily Review]

►Manganese ore prices remained stable while market sentiment showed signs of improvement [SMM Manganese Ore Daily Review]

►Manganese producers maintained firm offers; spot EMM prices held steady [SMM EMM Daily Review]

►Silver prices fluctuated at highs; price quotes in spot market diverged [SMM Daily Review]

►Rare earth prices jumped initially and then pulled back amid strong wait-and-see sentiment [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]